South Sudan's Political Crisis Escalates, Sudan-UAE Tensions Rise, and Economic Shifts Reshape Africa's Energy Sector
South Sudan’s government intensifies crackdown on Vice President Machar’s allies, risking a full-scale conflict.
Security forces loyal to President Salva Kiir have arrested the peacebuilding minister, further escalating tensions with opposition leader Riek Machar. This follows earlier detentions of key military and political figures associated with Machar. The continued crackdown violates the 2018 peace agreement and increases the likelihood of armed retaliation, raising fears of a renewed civil war. Fighting between national forces and the White Army militia has intensified in Upper Nile State, while church leaders warn of a potential nationwide security breakdown.
Sudan files a genocide case against the UAE at the ICJ, escalating regional tensions.
Sudan has accused the UAE of arming the RSF, which has been implicated in mass atrocities in Darfur. The case alleges that UAE support enabled the RSF’s ethnic attacks against the Masalit tribe, which the U.S. previously labeled as genocide. If the ICJ accepts the case, it could damage UAE-Sudan relations and shift regional alliances, potentially altering the dynamics of Sudan’s civil war. The UAE has dismissed the case as politically motivated, while major regional players, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, have rejected the RSF’s parallel government initiative.
Former DRC President Joseph Kabila reemerges as a political actor amid ongoing M23 insurgency.
Kabila has initiated talks with opposition leaders as Rwanda-backed M23 rebels continue to advance in eastern Congo. His outreach signals potential power realignments, with some opposition figures open to working against President Tshisekedi. Tshisekedi’s government has accused Kabila of fueling instability, and recent reports suggest security forces have blocked Kabila-linked operations over alleged ties to armed groups. The M23 crisis remains a major threat to regional stability, with Rwanda denying involvement despite mounting international pressure.
Nigeria launches new regulations to combat organ trafficking.
In response to growing ethical concerns, Nigeria has introduced comprehensive guidelines for organ transplants, explicitly banning organ sales and aiming to prevent human trafficking. Authorities have cited cases where vulnerable populations, particularly the poor, were exploited by criminal networks. While the regulations aim to improve transparency, enforcement remains a challenge given Nigeria’s weak institutional framework.
Nigeria’s electricity generation surges 30%, marking a significant infrastructure breakthrough.
Following the completion of key transmission projects, Nigeria’s power output has risen to nearly 6,000 megawatts. This increase follows years of underperformance, where only a third of available capacity reached consumers. The expansion could ease economic constraints and reduce reliance on expensive diesel generators, but systemic challenges in distribution remain.
Morocco approves $32.5 billion in green hydrogen projects, strengthening its energy transition.
The Moroccan government has signed agreements with U.S., European, and Chinese firms to develop large-scale green hydrogen projects. These investments align with the EU’s push for renewable energy imports, positioning Morocco as a key supplier. While the projects promise economic growth, concerns remain over long-term financing and local labor integration.
South Africa faces renewed bird flu concerns despite poultry sector recovery.
After losing a third of its chicken flock in 2023, South Africa’s poultry industry has rebounded, but weak vaccination efforts threaten another outbreak. Farmers are calling for state support, warning that another avian flu wave could destabilize the market and drive up food prices.
South Africa’s coal industry faces growing pressure as government study links plants to higher mortality rates.
A decade-long study has found that communities near coal plants experience a 6% higher mortality rate, intensifying calls for coal phase-outs. While environmentalists push for faster transitions, labor unions are resisting closures, highlighting the political and economic tensions in South Africa’s energy sector.
Strategic Implications: South Sudan’s political crisis risks triggering widespread violence, requiring urgent international mediation. Sudan’s ICJ case against the UAE could reshape regional alliances and affect the ongoing war. The DRC’s instability, coupled with Kabila’s resurgence, signals potential political realignments. Nigeria’s regulatory moves could impact global organ trade dynamics, while its power sector improvements may boost economic growth. Morocco’s green hydrogen investments could position it as a key player in global energy markets. Meanwhile, South Africa faces tough choices on coal, balancing environmental concerns with economic realities. These developments underscore Africa’s deepening security and economic challenges, requiring multi-level strategic responses.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(07-03-2025)
Africa’s geopolitical risk remains critically high as internal conflicts, economic instability, and geopolitical tensions escalate. South Sudan is at the edge of renewed civil war as President Kiir’s forces continue mass arrests of Vice President Machar’s allies, heightening risks of widespread violence. Sudan has filed a genocide case against the UAE at the ICJ over allegations of arming the RSF, intensifying the regional power struggle. In Nigeria, a crackdown on organ trafficking signals a shift in regulatory oversight, while electricity generation has surged following infrastructure investments, potentially stabilizing parts of the economy. Meanwhile, the DRC’s former president Kabila is engaging with opposition leaders amid M23 rebel advances, signaling potential political realignments. Economic risks persist with rising energy investments in Morocco and Nigeria’s oil sector expansion, while South Africa’s coal industry faces growing pressure to transition to renewables. The combination of security crises and economic shifts necessitates urgent strategic responses at both national and regional levels.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- South Sudan's Political Crisis Escalates, Sudan-UAE Tensions Rise, and Economic Shifts Reshape Africa's Energy Sector - (07-03-2025)
- South Sudan on the Brink of Civil War, Mozambique Faces Political Crackdown, and Economic Uncertainty Spreads Across Africa - (06-03-2025)
- Africa’s Security and Economic Crises Deepen: DRC Conflict Intensifies, South Sudan Risks Civil War, and Economic Woes Mount - (05-03-2025)
- Africa’s Geopolitical Instability Worsens: DRC Faces War Crimes, Sudan’s Illicit Economy Expands, and Economic Pressures Rise - (04-03-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC’s Military in Crisis, Guinea-Bissau Faces Political Breakdown, and Economic Strains Deepen - (03-03-2025)
- Africa’s Security and Economic Crisis Worsens: DRC Nears Regional War, Sudan Faces Fragmentation, and Financial Instability Spreads - (02-03-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC Faces War Escalation, Sudan’s RSF Challenges Legitimacy, and Economic Pressures Intensify - (01-03-2025)
- Africa’s Crises Deepen: DRC’s Conflict Turns Deadlier, Sudan Faces Starvation, and Economic Risks Escalate - (28-02-2025)
