South Sudan on the Brink of Civil War, Mozambique Faces Political Crackdown, and Economic Uncertainty Spreads Across Africa
South Sudan faces a major political crisis as the government arrests key allies of Vice President Riek Machar, raising fears of renewed civil war.
Security forces have detained Petroleum Minister Puot Kang Chol and senior military officials linked to Machar, accusing them of collaborating with the White Army militia. These arrests violate the 2018 peace agreement and suggest that President Salva Kiir is consolidating power at Machar’s expense. The situation is compounded by armed clashes in the northern town of Nasir, where Machar’s Nuer-aligned militia is battling government forces. The African Union and UN have warned of ‘widespread violence,’ as South Sudan’s economy, heavily dependent on oil, faces severe disruptions due to the war in neighboring Sudan.
Political violence escalates in Mozambique as security forces fire on opposition protesters.
Police opened fire on supporters of opposition leader Venancio Mondlane in Maputo, injuring at least 10 people. Mondlane, who claims last year’s election was rigged, has been excluded from government-led reconciliation talks, fueling mass unrest. With over 350 killed in protests since October, the state’s crackdown on opposition signals a deepening authoritarian trend in Mozambique. Political analysts warn that excluding Mondlane from negotiations risks prolonging instability, potentially disrupting the country’s natural gas sector.
Mali tightens control over its mining sector, suspending foreign artisanal mining permits following deadly accidents.
After two recent mine collapses killed dozens, the junta has banned foreign nationals from obtaining new small-scale mining permits. This policy shift reflects broader resource nationalism trends in Africa, where governments seek greater control over mineral wealth. Mali remains one of Africa’s top gold producers, but its industrial output plunged 23% in 2024, raising concerns that restrictive policies could deter foreign investment.
Ghana’s inflation slows but remains high, keeping economic recovery fragile.
Inflation fell for the second consecutive month to 23.1% but remains above the central bank’s 8% target range. Food inflation has declined, yet Ghana’s economy struggles with instability in its vital cocoa and gold industries. Despite improvements, Ghana remains vulnerable to external shocks, particularly given ongoing debt concerns.
South Africa’s rand fluctuates as global uncertainty affects emerging markets.
The rand gained 0.5% against the dollar as the U.S. currency weakened, though economic concerns persist. Investors remain cautious ahead of South Africa’s delayed national budget, with political divisions in the ruling coalition complicating fiscal policy decisions. With low business confidence and fiscal uncertainty, South Africa risks further economic volatility.
Egypt’s inflation is forecasted to drop significantly, though economic risks remain.
Analysts expect inflation to decline to 14.5%, aided by statistical base effects, though price pressures remain elevated due to seasonal Ramadan factors. Egypt has relied on external funding, including an $8 billion IMF package, to stabilize its economy. While inflation trends appear positive, the economy remains fragile, with high money supply growth fueling long-term concerns.
Nigeria’s regulatory crackdown on MultiChoice raises concerns over market governance.
The Nigerian government is suing MultiChoice Nigeria for defying a regulatory order to freeze price increases on DSTV and GOtv. The case reflects broader tensions between the government and private sector over price controls and consumer rights. Given Nigeria’s history of regulatory unpredictability, such actions may deter foreign investment in key industries.
Strategic Implications: South Sudan’s political crisis could reignite civil war, with severe regional consequences. Mozambique’s government crackdown risks further instability, threatening the country’s resource-dependent economy. Mali’s shift toward resource nationalism aligns with broader African trends but may deter mining investment. Economic uncertainty persists across Ghana, South Africa, and Egypt, reflecting structural vulnerabilities that could fuel social unrest. Nigeria’s regulatory stance on MultiChoice highlights challenges in balancing market stability with government intervention. Urgent diplomatic, economic, and conflict-resolution measures are needed to prevent Africa’s crises from deepening further.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(06-03-2025)
Africa's geopolitical risks remain critically high due to escalating conflicts, political instability, and economic uncertainties. South Sudan is on the brink of renewed civil war as security forces arrest senior officials close to Vice President Riek Machar, violating the fragile 2018 peace deal. Mozambique faces growing political violence after security forces fired on opposition protesters, jeopardizing any prospects for stability. Meanwhile, Sudan's ongoing war has disrupted South Sudan’s oil exports, worsening its economic crisis. Mali's decision to suspend foreign artisanal mining permits signals a shift toward resource nationalism, reflecting broader trends of state control over natural resources. In economic developments, Ghana’s inflation remains above the central bank’s target despite slowing, South Africa’s financial markets remain volatile amid global uncertainty, and Egypt’s inflation is forecasted to drop, though risks persist. Additionally, Nigeria’s regulatory crackdown on MultiChoice exposes concerns over market governance. These crises indicate worsening political and economic fragility across the continent, requiring urgent regional and international responses.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- South Sudan on the Brink of Civil War, Mozambique Faces Political Crackdown, and Economic Uncertainty Spreads Across Africa - (06-03-2025)
- Africa’s Security and Economic Crises Deepen: DRC Conflict Intensifies, South Sudan Risks Civil War, and Economic Woes Mount - (05-03-2025)
- Africa’s Geopolitical Instability Worsens: DRC Faces War Crimes, Sudan’s Illicit Economy Expands, and Economic Pressures Rise - (04-03-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC’s Military in Crisis, Guinea-Bissau Faces Political Breakdown, and Economic Strains Deepen - (03-03-2025)
- Africa’s Security and Economic Crisis Worsens: DRC Nears Regional War, Sudan Faces Fragmentation, and Financial Instability Spreads - (02-03-2025)
- Africa’s Fragile Stability: DRC Faces War Escalation, Sudan’s RSF Challenges Legitimacy, and Economic Pressures Intensify - (01-03-2025)
- Africa’s Crises Deepen: DRC’s Conflict Turns Deadlier, Sudan Faces Starvation, and Economic Risks Escalate - (28-02-2025)
- Africa’s Security and Economic Tensions Intensify: DRC War Deepens, Sudan’s Drone Warfare Escalates, and Guinea-Bissau Faces Political Crisis - (27-02-2025)
