Global Risk Indexes (10-03-2025)

Global 97 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 96 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 96 (+1 ▲)
Markets 96 (-1 ▼)
Graham Westcott, Global Markets region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Graham Westcott

Navigating Global Intersections: Where Trade, Finance, Energy and Geopolitics Converge

Market Volatility Intensifies as U.S. Trade War Expands and Energy Disruptions Escalate

Global markets remain on edge as the U.S. administration's tariff policies deepen trade uncertainties. The White House is finalizing broad tariff hikes against China, the European Union, and Canada, citing unfair trade practices and national security concerns. The aggressive stance has rattled investors, sending equity markets into a volatile cycle, while safe-haven assets such as gold experience renewed demand.

Energy markets face rising geopolitical pressures with Brent crude falling to $69.99 per barrel amid U.S. sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil exports. The latest sanctions have left millions of barrels of crude stranded at sea, disrupting global supply chains. Washington's renewed 'maximum pressure' strategy on Iran aims to cut its oil exports to zero, leading to tighter markets despite OPEC plans to increase output starting in April.

Gold prices surge as investors seek protection against currency instability and rising inflation risks. Spot gold hovers around $2,937 per ounce, retreating slightly after reaching an all-time high of $2,956.15. Demand for gold remains strong, driven by economic uncertainty, geopolitical risks, and expectations of prolonged trade conflicts.

Emerging market currencies struggle under trade war pressure. The South Korean won has depreciated sharply against the dollar due to trade uncertainty and lower GDP forecasts. The Bank of Korea's latest interest rate cut underscores concerns about weakening economic growth, as the central bank pivots toward monetary easing amid global financial turbulence.

U.S.-China tensions escalate as Beijing retaliates with counter-tariffs on key American exports. The ongoing economic conflict is beginning to disrupt global supply chains, forcing corporations to seek alternative sourcing strategies. China’s response to U.S. economic aggression signals a prolonged period of trade instability, with further market dislocations expected in the months ahead.

Outlook: Markets remain highly volatile as geopolitical risks intensify. Investors are likely to maintain a defensive stance, increasing allocations to gold and other safe-haven assets. Energy markets will remain turbulent as OPEC production adjustments and Western sanctions on Russia and Iran reshape global oil supply dynamics. The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and its key economic partners will continue to pressure financial markets, forcing central banks to reassess their policy approaches in response to evolving risks.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Global Markets
(10-03-2025)

The global economy is under heightened stress as U.S. tariffs escalate tensions with China, Europe, and Canada, driving uncertainty in trade flows. Meanwhile, energy markets remain volatile due to OPEC+ supply adjustments and intensified sanctions on Russia and Iran. Investors are retreating to gold as a hedge against macroeconomic instability, while emerging markets face currency depreciation pressures. Global financial markets brace for a prolonged period of volatility as geopolitical instability weighs on investor sentiment.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Global Markets (See All Global)

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