Africa at a Crossroads: Political Upheaval in the DRC, Foreign Military Involvement in South Sudan, and Economic Fragmentation
Political turmoil in the DRC intensifies as former President Kabila’s party faces scrutiny.
Joseph Kabila’s political influence is under attack as key figures from his People’s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) face questioning over alleged connections to the M23 rebel group. This move by President Felix Tshisekedi’s government appears designed to weaken Kabila’s standing ahead of potential political realignments. If Kabila’s network is destabilized, the DRC could see a power vacuum that further emboldens non-state actors, exacerbating the already volatile situation in the east.
Uganda’s military deployment to South Sudan signals increasing foreign intervention.
Uganda’s special forces have been deployed to Juba under the pretext of 'securing' the capital, but the move is widely seen as support for President Salva Kiir amid rising tensions with Vice President Riek Machar. This external military involvement escalates South Sudan’s crisis, raising the risk of proxy conflicts as regional actors position themselves strategically. Uganda’s deeper entanglement in South Sudan mirrors past interventions in the DRC and could set the stage for prolonged instability.
Kenya’s health system faces collapse as U.S. aid freeze disrupts HIV treatment.
With $34 million worth of antiretroviral drugs sitting in warehouses due to a U.S. aid suspension, Kenya is struggling to provide critical HIV treatment. Clinics are rationing supplies, and the crisis highlights the precarious nature of donor-reliant healthcare systems. The situation not only threatens public health but could also fuel political discontent, potentially leading to broader unrest.
The DRC’s cobalt export ban reshapes global supply chains.
The DRC’s four-month cobalt export ban, enforced by Eurasian Resources Group (ERG), has sent shockwaves through global markets, causing price surges as major buyers scramble for alternatives. Africa’s leverage in the critical minerals sector is becoming increasingly evident, with geopolitical players like the U.S. and China likely to adjust their engagement strategies. If the ban persists, it could trigger new investment flows into alternative markets such as Zambia, but also risks reinforcing instability in Congolese mining regions.
Nigeria bets on renewable energy with a $200 million investment in mini-grid expansion.
Nigeria’s partnership with WeLight to develop 400 mini-grids and 50 MetroGrids reflects Africa’s shift towards renewable energy, backed by institutions such as the World Bank. While this move is a step toward electrification, questions remain about financial sustainability and regulatory transparency in Nigeria’s energy sector.
Strategic Implications: The political confrontation between Tshisekedi and Kabila in the DRC could upend the country’s fragile stability, while Uganda’s intervention in South Sudan signals a dangerous precedent of foreign military involvement in internal conflicts. Kenya’s healthcare crisis exposes Africa’s vulnerability to shifting Western financial policies, while the DRC’s cobalt export ban showcases the continent’s growing leverage in global resource markets. Nigeria’s renewable energy strategy may provide economic opportunities, but also raises concerns about governance and financial oversight. These developments demand urgent diplomatic mediation, security de-escalation, and a reassessment of Africa’s economic dependencies.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Africa
(11-03-2025)
Africa’s geopolitical risk remains at a dangerously high level due to intensifying political instability, foreign military involvement, and economic fragility. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is in the midst of a political showdown as former President Joseph Kabila’s allies face investigation over suspected ties to the M23 rebellion. South Sudan’s fragile peace is further threatened by Uganda’s military deployment to Juba, signaling an escalation in regional power struggles. Kenya’s health sector is on the brink of collapse due to U.S. aid suspensions, highlighting the structural risks of donor dependency. Meanwhile, the DRC’s cobalt export ban is disrupting global supply chains, reinforcing Africa’s strategic role in critical minerals. Nigeria’s push into renewable energy signifies a shift in economic strategy but also raises governance and financing concerns. These developments underscore the continent’s mounting security and economic risks, demanding urgent diplomatic coordination, regional stabilization efforts, and policy realignments.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Africa (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Africa at a Crossroads: Political Upheaval in the DRC, Foreign Military Involvement in South Sudan, and Economic Fragmentation - (11-03-2025)
- South Sudan’s Peace Process Unraveling, DRC’s Conflict Intensifies, and U.S. Eyes Africa’s Critical Minerals - (10-03-2025)
- Africa Faces Deepening Crises: South Sudan’s Peace in Peril, DRC Refugee Surge, and Growing Global Tensions - (09-03-2025)
- South Sudan Faces Renewed Conflict, DRC Refugee Crisis Deepens, and U.S.-South Africa Relations Fracture - (08-03-2025)
- South Sudan's Political Crisis Escalates, Sudan-UAE Tensions Rise, and Economic Shifts Reshape Africa's Energy Sector - (07-03-2025)
- South Sudan on the Brink of Civil War, Mozambique Faces Political Crackdown, and Economic Uncertainty Spreads Across Africa - (06-03-2025)
- Africa’s Security and Economic Crises Deepen: DRC Conflict Intensifies, South Sudan Risks Civil War, and Economic Woes Mount - (05-03-2025)
- Africa’s Geopolitical Instability Worsens: DRC Faces War Crimes, Sudan’s Illicit Economy Expands, and Economic Pressures Rise - (04-03-2025)
