Global Risk Indexes (11-03-2025)

Global 97 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 95 (-1 ▼)
AMERs 96 ( —)
Markets 97 (+1 ▲)
Markus Schmidt, Europe region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Markus Schmidt

Analyzing Today, Anticipating Tomorrow

Europe’s Strategic Weakness Exposed: U.S.-Russia Negotiations, Ukraine’s Battlefield Crisis, and Growing Transatlantic Divisions

Poland and the U.S. continue their Starlink dispute, exposing widening NATO fractures. Following U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s criticism of Poland’s concerns over Ukraine’s reliance on Starlink, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called for ‘respect’ among allies, indirectly rebuking Washington’s dismissive stance. The spat highlights Poland’s frustration over U.S. dominance in NATO decision-making and deepens concerns about Washington’s long-term commitment to European security. If unresolved, it could accelerate Poland’s push for greater defense autonomy.

Ukraine’s battlefield position deteriorates as Russian forces press deeper into Kursk and Sumy. Ukrainian troops in Kursk are facing encirclement, while Russian forces are attempting to create a new front in Ukraine’s Sumy region, signaling a widening scope of Moscow’s offensive. Kyiv’s military leadership insists that defensive maneuvers are holding, but reports suggest Russian advances could threaten Ukraine’s supply lines. European governments are increasingly concerned that without additional military aid, Ukraine could be forced into disadvantageous peace talks.

Ukraine launches its largest drone attack on Moscow, escalating direct strikes inside Russia. Over 90 drones targeted Moscow in what is described as Ukraine’s most significant aerial assault on Russian territory. While most were intercepted, the attack disrupted Moscow’s airports and caused civilian casualties. The scale of the operation suggests Kyiv is escalating asymmetric warfare in response to Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This raises concerns of further Russian retaliation and the risk of broader escalation.

Washington’s push for Ukraine to accept territorial concessions strains U.S.-European relations. The upcoming U.S.-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia are expected to pressure Kyiv into making territorial compromises with Moscow. European leaders, particularly in Paris and Berlin, are resisting this approach, arguing that any concessions would reward Russian aggression and undermine European security. The negotiations are yet another sign of Washington’s evolving stance on the war, which increasingly prioritizes ending the conflict over maintaining European strategic stability.

The euro faces growing challenges as a reserve currency, complicating EU economic strategies. European financial officials are increasingly wary of seizing frozen Russian assets due to concerns that such a move could undermine global confidence in the euro. With the U.S. dollar maintaining its dominance, and emerging economies shifting toward alternative reserve assets, Europe faces new economic vulnerabilities. The uncertainty over the euro’s future status adds another layer of economic instability to an already fragile continent.

Greenland’s independence debate intensifies as U.S. seeks control over Arctic resources. Ahead of Greenland’s upcoming vote, U.S. interest in securing influence over the island is increasing tensions with Denmark. If Greenland moves toward independence, it could fundamentally reshape Arctic geopolitics, with Washington seeking to secure its position while limiting Chinese and Russian influence. Europe, preoccupied with internal security concerns, risks losing strategic influence over Arctic affairs.

Germany remains economically and politically paralyzed as coalition negotiations stall. The debate over military spending, economic stimulus, and migration policy continues to delay the formation of a stable government in Berlin. This uncertainty weakens Germany’s ability to lead EU policy on both economic recovery and defense strategy, exacerbating broader European instability.

Russia expands its hybrid warfare tactics, increasing cyberattacks and infrastructure sabotage. Reports indicate that Russian cyber intrusions and potential sabotage efforts against European energy grids and financial networks are escalating. Moscow’s asymmetric warfare strategy is designed to create economic and political instability within Europe while avoiding direct military confrontation with NATO.

As transatlantic tensions rise, European leaders must urgently define their security strategy or risk further diplomatic and military setbacks.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Europe
(11-03-2025)

Europe is facing a critical moment of geopolitical instability, as U.S.-Russia negotiations and military escalations in Ukraine intensify uncertainty over the continent’s security. The diplomatic spat between Poland and the U.S. over Starlink access for Ukraine exposes deepening transatlantic tensions, while Washington’s push for territorial concessions from Kyiv threatens to weaken European influence over the war’s resolution. Russia's growing offensive in Kursk and new incursions in Sumy further strain Ukraine’s defensive capabilities, while the massive Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow raises the stakes of direct confrontation. Meanwhile, economic concerns persist as the euro faces reserve currency challenges, and Germany remains paralyzed by fiscal policy disputes. With Greenland’s independence vote nearing and the U.S. actively courting control over Arctic resources, Europe's long-term strategic position is at risk of further decline.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Europe (See All Global)

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