Europe Under Siege: Russian Advances, Hybrid Threats, and Economic Struggles Push EU Toward a Critical Inflection Point
The Ukraine war has intensified, with Russia launching one of its most aggressive missile and drone barrages in recent months. The attacks, which targeted energy infrastructure and residential areas in Poltava, Kharkiv, and Sumy, highlight Moscow's dual strategy of military attrition and economic disruption. The destruction of critical power facilities further strains Ukraine's wartime resilience, while Russia's incremental battlefield gains near Pokrovsk indicate a broader strategic push to collapse Ukrainian defensive lines. Europe must now consider more assertive military-industrial mobilization, as delays in Western support risk Ukraine's ability to sustain long-term resistance.
Hybrid warfare is escalating, with both Russia and China intensifying their disinformation campaigns against Europe. Russia's attempts to rewrite history'exemplified by President Vladimir Putin's criticism of Russia's exclusion from Auschwitz liberation commemorations'are part of a broader effort to manipulate European historical narratives and undermine Western unity. Meanwhile, China's cyber influence operations in Spain and other EU nations signal Beijing's growing interest in exploiting European political vulnerabilities. The EU must urgently enhance its counter-disinformation strategies and cybersecurity frameworks to mitigate these hybrid threats.
Economic tensions are deepening, as the fallout from U.S. trade policies under President Trump threatens to destabilize European markets. Trump's decision to impose sweeping tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China has triggered fears of a broader trade war, with EU leaders bracing for potential retaliatory measures. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has warned against escalating trade disputes, but European policymakers must prepare for economic protectionism that could further weaken the Eurozone's fragile recovery. The EU should accelerate trade diversification efforts and invest in strategic sectors such as renewable energy, semiconductors, and defense manufacturing.
Internal EU political fractures are widening, as Germany, France, and Norway struggle with rising polarization. In Germany, opposition leader Friedrich Merz's controversial alignment with the far-right AfD on migration policy has sparked mass protests and internal CDU divisions, threatening the stability of Germany's political center. Meanwhile, France's embattled Prime Minister Fran'ois Bayrou faces a critical no-confidence vote over the budget crisis, which could plunge the country into further instability. These political crises weaken the EU's ability to present a united front on defense, economic policy, and energy security.
The Arctic is becoming a new geopolitical battleground, with U.S. President Donald Trump openly pressuring Denmark to cede Greenland. Trump's aggressive stance'including the possibility of economic or military measures to force Copenhagen's hand'represents a direct challenge to European sovereignty in the Arctic. Europe's failure to develop a cohesive Arctic strategy has left the region vulnerable to both U.S. and Russian maneuvering. The EU must urgently establish a long-term Arctic policy to protect its strategic interests.
Security risks in Africa continue to rise, with Russian and Chinese influence expanding in former European spheres of control. France's weakening grip on African security, particularly in the Sahel and Central Africa, threatens European resource access and migration control. The EU must recalibrate its engagement with Africa, prioritizing security cooperation, infrastructure investment, and energy partnerships to counter Moscow and Beijing's growing foothold.
The UK's post-Brexit realignment with the EU is accelerating, as Prime Minister Keir Starmer pushes for deeper security cooperation with Europe. Starmer's trip to Brussels and meetings with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte signal a clear shift toward stronger UK-EU defense coordination. However, domestic constraints'including migration concerns and economic struggles'could limit the UK's ability to fully integrate into Europe's evolving security architecture.
Europe is approaching a critical inflection point. The compounding pressures of war, economic instability, and political fragmentation demand decisive action. Failure to strengthen defense coordination, reinforce economic resilience, and counter hybrid threats could leave the continent increasingly vulnerable to external manipulation and internal collapse.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Europe
(03-02-2025)
Europe is navigating a period of acute geopolitical instability, with escalating war in Ukraine, hybrid threats from Russia and China, economic stagnation, and deepening political fractures within the EU. As external threats mount and internal divisions grow, Europe must prioritize military readiness, energy security, and economic resilience to prevent long-term strategic decline.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Europe (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Europe Under Siege: Russian Advances, Hybrid Threats, and Economic Struggles Push EU Toward a Critical Inflection Point - (03-02-2025)
- Europe at a Crossroads: Ukraine War Intensifies, Hybrid Warfare Expands, and Economic Instability Deepens - (02-02-2025)
- Europe Faces Military Escalation, Economic Disruptions, and Hybrid Threats Amid Intensifying Global Power Struggles - (01-02-2025)
- Europe Faces Existential Geopolitical Test Amid Russian Military Gains, Economic Stagnation, and Political Polarization - (31-01-2025)
- Europe Grapples with Russian Gains, Arctic Rivalries, and Political Polarization Amid Heightened Security Risks - (30-01-2025)
- Europe Confronts Russian Advances, Energy Turmoil, and Political Divisions Amid Growing Security and Economic Strains - (29-01-2025)
- Europe Confronts Russian Advances, Energy Insecurity, and Arctic Tensions Amid Political and Economic Strains - (28-01-2025)
- Europe Confronts Ukraine Escalation, Baltic Infrastructure Threats, and Economic Uncertainty Amid Political Strains - (27-01-2025)
