Global Risk Indexes (02-01-2025)

Global 93 (+1 ▲)
MENA 98 (+1 ▲)
APAC 95 ( —)
Europe 94 ( —)
Africa 86 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 91 (+1 ▲)
Markets 95 (+2 ▲)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

MENA in Flux: Israeli Military Escalations, Syrian Challenges, and Energy Market Shifts

The Middle East enters 2025 with heightened geopolitical tensions as regional conflicts intensify and economic pressures mount. Israeli offensives, Syria's governance struggles, and shifting global energy dynamics remain critical focal points shaping the region's trajectory.

Israel's military escalation in Gaza continues to exact a devastating toll. The latest airstrikes killed 10 Palestinians, including women and children, in a tent encampment designated as a humanitarian area in Khan Younis. The deaths of Gaza's police chief and his aide in the same strike underscore the Israeli strategy of targeting Hamas' administrative and operational capacities. However, these actions deepen the humanitarian crisis, with over 45,500 Palestinians killed and most of Gaza's population displaced. Israel's broader campaign, while aimed at neutralizing threats, risks prolonging the cycle of violence and complicating international mediation efforts.

Syria's transitional governance faces increasing complexity amidst internal and external pressures. The appointment of foreign fighters to key military roles by HTS raises questions about inclusivity and stability. Meanwhile, property evictions targeting Assad-era officials highlight the lingering legacy of the former regime and the challenges of societal reconciliation. Gulf states' engagement, including Kuwaiti overtures to reopen ties with Damascus, reflects a cautious shift toward reintegration. However, these efforts are contingent on Syria's ability to address governance and security concerns, which remain formidable obstacles to stability.

Energy market dynamics underscore the region's economic interdependence with global trends. Oil prices rose modestly as traders weighed Chinese economic recovery against global supply pressures. OPEC faces ongoing challenges in balancing production cuts with weak demand projections, particularly from China. Russia's halting of gas exports via Ukrainian pipelines adds a geopolitical layer to Europe's energy security calculations, with implications for regional energy strategies. The Gulf states, while benefiting from higher oil prices, must navigate the long-term pressures of economic diversification and fiscal sustainability.

Regional implications: The overlapping crises in Gaza, Syria, and global energy markets necessitate coordinated international responses to prevent further destabilization. Israel's military actions risk exacerbating regional polarization, Syria's governance challenges highlight the fragility of post-conflict transitions, and energy market shifts underscore the region's critical role in global economic stability.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(02-01-2025)

The MENA region continues to face escalating risks from Israel's intensifying military campaigns in Gaza, economic recalibrations tied to global energy markets, and the complex dynamics of Syrian governance. These developments highlight the region's persistent volatility and its implications for regional and global stability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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