Global Risk Indexes (30-01-2025)

Global 97 (0 —)
MENA 95 ( —)
APAC 97 (+1 ▲)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 97 (+1 ▲)
Markets 97 (-1 ▼)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Israel's West Bank Offensive, Gaza's Humanitarian Crisis, and Syria's Political Transition: MENA's Fragile Stability Faces Major Tests

The Middle East and North Africa remain in a precarious state as developments on January 30, 2025, highlight an increasingly fragile security environment. While Gaza's ceasefire holds, its implementation remains contentious, Lebanon faces deepening political and economic turmoil, and Israel's intensified military actions in the West Bank raise concerns about broader regional escalation.

Israel's large-scale offensive in the West Bank, particularly in Jenin and Tubas, underscores the growing tensions between Israeli forces and Palestinian armed groups. Defense Minister Israel Katz's announcement that Israeli troops will remain in Jenin indefinitely signals a shift toward long-term military entrenchment in Palestinian territories. This decision, framed as part of Israel's broader 'multi-front war' against Iranian-backed militias, risks triggering a new wave of violence across the region. Palestinian officials have condemned the move, with accusations of excessive force and mass displacement further fueling unrest. With at least 17 Palestinians, including civilians, killed in the past week and thousands forced from their homes, the situation in the West Bank could evolve into a prolonged conflict.

Gaza's humanitarian crisis continues to deepen despite the ongoing ceasefire. While over 650,000 displaced residents have begun returning, the reality on the ground remains dire. Infrastructure destruction, lack of access to clean water, and limited electricity have made large portions of northern Gaza nearly uninhabitable. Hamas officials have accused Israel of failing to facilitate the agreed-upon aid flow, while Israeli officials maintain that aid shipments are proceeding as planned. The phased release of hostages, including three more scheduled for Thursday, has temporarily stabilized the situation, but deep-rooted political disagreements between Hamas, Israel, and international mediators could unravel the truce if not addressed decisively.

Lebanon's fragile security situation is worsening as Israeli airstrikes in Nabatieh and Majdal Selm killed and injured dozens. Hezbollah's leadership has reiterated its commitment to resisting Israeli military actions, warning that its response will come 'at a time and place of our choosing.' Meanwhile, the U.S. has pushed for an extension of the ceasefire agreement, but the increasing frequency of border clashes suggests that de-escalation remains unlikely. Economically, Lebanon continues to face severe instability, with Dubai-based conglomerate Al Habtoor Group pulling all planned investments from the country. The UAE's reopening of its embassy in Beirut suggests a cautious diplomatic re-engagement, but it is unlikely to translate into substantial financial support unless Lebanon's governance crisis is addressed.

In Syria, the political landscape continues to shift as Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani prepares to visit Damascus, marking a significant step in Syria's re-entry into regional diplomacy. This visit follows Qatar's pledge to help finance Syria's public sector wage increases and the supply of 200 megawatts of electricity, signaling Doha's deepening engagement with the new leadership in Damascus. Meanwhile, Syria's interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has moved to consolidate power by dissolving the country's parliament and forming a temporary legislative council. While this transition is welcomed by some regional players, concerns remain over Sharaa's Islamist leanings and the potential for HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) to entrench its control over the government.

In the Red Sea, maritime security concerns persist after a fire broke out aboard a Hong Kong-flagged container ship. While initial assessments indicate the incident was not linked to Houthi attacks, it has nevertheless heightened fears of continued instability in one of the world's most vital trade corridors. The ongoing crisis in Yemen, coupled with the Houthis' continued detention of U.N. personnel, underscores the risks posed by proxy conflicts to global trade and energy security.

Strategic Implications: The region remains at a crossroads where diplomatic efforts to stabilize Gaza and Syria must be balanced against escalating tensions in the West Bank, Lebanon, and the Red Sea. Israel's deepening military presence in the West Bank risks widening the conflict beyond its current parameters, while Gaza's humanitarian crisis and stalled reconstruction efforts could undermine the fragile ceasefire. Lebanon's instability continues to deter investment and economic recovery, while Syria's transition remains a wildcard with uncertain long-term consequences. The broader regional picture suggests that without concerted multilateral engagement, these crises could spiral into a more prolonged and destabilizing conflict.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(30-01-2025)

The MENA region remains deeply fragile, with tensions escalating in the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, while the Gaza ceasefire continues to be tested by both political divisions and humanitarian challenges. Proxy rivalries, maritime insecurity, and economic pressures further compound the region's volatility.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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