Europe Faces Geopolitical Inflection Point as Hybrid Warfare, Economic Pressures, and Political Fractures Intensify
The war in Ukraine has entered a decisive phase, with Russia escalating both military and hybrid warfare tactics. The Kremlin's deepening partnership with North Korea, marked by the use of Pyongyang-supplied missiles, underscores Moscow's ability to sustain its offensive. The increased accuracy and effectiveness of these weapons threaten Ukraine's air defense capabilities, while Russia's continued advances in Donbas highlight the failure of Western military aid to decisively halt Moscow's momentum. The EU faces a critical decision: significantly ramp up arms deliveries or risk Ukraine losing further strategic ground.
Hybrid warfare is intensifying, with Russia and China aggressively targeting Europe through cyberattacks, disinformation, and economic influence operations. Russia has expelled Western journalists while expanding its influence campaigns, including a recruitment drive targeting Americans sympathetic to its anti-Western rhetoric. Meanwhile, China is exploiting EU vulnerabilities by using cyber intrusions to disrupt critical sectors, further complicating Europe's ability to counter rising geopolitical threats. Strengthening cyber defenses and counter-disinformation efforts must become a top EU priority.
U.S.-EU trade tensions have reached a breaking point, with President Donald Trump threatening aggressive tariffs on European industries. The EU is now facing the prospect of a full-scale trade war that could cripple its economic recovery, particularly in the automotive, technology, and agriculture sectors. Compounding this challenge, China's potential retaliation against the U.S. could further destabilize global supply chains, forcing Europe into a delicate balancing act. The EU must accelerate trade diversification efforts and strengthen economic alliances with Asia and Latin America to mitigate potential fallout.
Far-right political movements are gaining momentum, with Germany's AfD, Hungary's Viktor Orb'n, and France's nationalist factions consolidating influence. Elon Musk's public endorsement of AfD has intensified concerns over algorithmic bias and digital election interference, particularly as Germany prepares for national elections. The rise of illiberal forces threatens to undermine EU cohesion and democratic stability, requiring urgent institutional countermeasures to prevent political radicalization from weakening European governance.
Europe's fiscal policies are shifting toward defense prioritization, with Poland leading calls to exempt military spending from EU budget constraints. This push reflects broader European concerns over NATO's evolving security requirements, particularly with Trump pressuring allies to meet higher defense spending thresholds. If approved, this policy shift could accelerate European military rearmament but also risks fiscal instability, particularly in debt-laden economies such as France and Italy.
Energy security remains fragile, as the Baltic states have officially disconnected from Russia's power grid, marking a significant step toward European energy independence. However, this transition has heightened security concerns, given recent reports of Russian sabotage efforts targeting undersea infrastructure. The EU must act swiftly to reinforce its energy security framework, focusing on infrastructure protection and alternative supply diversification.
Crime and social unrest are increasing, with France battling record-breaking cocaine trafficking linked to violent organized crime. Major European ports such as Antwerp, Rotterdam, and Barcelona have become key hubs for international smuggling networks, fueling corruption and instability. Meanwhile, Spain faces growing social unrest over housing affordability, as protests against gentrification intensify. These developments highlight the broader challenge of rising urban insecurity and the need for stronger law enforcement coordination across EU states.
Russia is consolidating control over key strategic regions, with the resumption of passenger flights to Sukhumi, Abkhazia, signaling deeper Russian entrenchment in the South Caucasus. This move complicates Georgia's European integration prospects and underscores Moscow's broader strategy of exerting influence over breakaway regions. The EU must reassess its approach to Georgia and increase diplomatic engagement to counter Russian geopolitical maneuvering.
Sweden's mass shooting has reignited debates over security policies, following the country's deadliest attack in recent history. The tragedy has intensified calls for stricter gun control measures and expanded counterterrorism capabilities. Sweden's response will set a precedent for Europe's broader approach to public security, as similar debates emerge in other EU states grappling with rising violent crime.
As Europe faces an unprecedented convergence of security, economic, and political challenges, the coming months will determine whether the continent can maintain stability. The EU must act decisively to strengthen its military capabilities, reinforce economic resilience, and counter the growing influence of hostile foreign actors. Failure to do so risks leaving Europe increasingly vulnerable to external coercion and internal fragmentation.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Europe
(09-02-2025)
Europe is facing an intensifying geopolitical storm, marked by escalating hybrid warfare, deepening U.S.-EU trade tensions, and increasing internal political fragmentation. The war in Ukraine has entered a more dangerous phase, with Russia deploying North Korean missiles while sustaining battlefield advances. Meanwhile, far-right movements continue to gain ground across key European states, exposing internal vulnerabilities. Economic uncertainty persists, with EU governments debating fiscal rule changes to prioritize defense spending, while energy security remains a concern. The continent must urgently bolster its strategic resilience to counter external threats and internal instability.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Europe (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Europe Faces Geopolitical Inflection Point as Hybrid Warfare, Economic Pressures, and Political Fractures Intensify - (09-02-2025)
- Europe Faces Ukraine Escalation, U.S. Political Pressure, and Economic Struggles Amid Growing Security Concerns - (08-02-2025)
- Europe Faces Escalating Hybrid Warfare, Economic Turbulence, and Political Instability - (07-02-2025)
- Europe Confronts Hybrid Warfare, U.S. Trade Conflicts, and Political Upheaval Amid Global Power Struggles - (06-02-2025)
- Europe at a Breaking Point: Russia's Hybrid Warfare, U.S. Trade War, and Political Polarization Threaten Continental Stability - (05-02-2025)
- Europe's Strategic Crossroads: Russia's Hybrid War, U.S. Trade Tariffs, and Internal Political Fractures Raise Existential Questions - (04-02-2025)
- Europe Under Siege: Russian Advances, Hybrid Threats, and Economic Struggles Push EU Toward a Critical Inflection Point - (03-02-2025)
- Europe at a Crossroads: Ukraine War Intensifies, Hybrid Warfare Expands, and Economic Instability Deepens - (02-02-2025)
