Global Risk Indexes (11-12-2024)

Global 85 (+1 ▲)
MENA 94 (+1 ▲)
APAC 88 (+1 ▲)
Europe 84 (+1 ▲)
Africa 78 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 77 (-1 ▼)
Markets 88 (+1 ▲)
Graham Westcott, Global Markets region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Graham Westcott

Navigating Global Intersections: Where Trade, Finance, Energy and Geopolitics Converge

Geopolitical Shifts and Economic Strains Deepen Global Instabilities

In Africa, the expiration of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) mandate raises critical security concerns as clashes between Jubbaland and Somali federal forces divert resources from the fight against al-Shabaab. Meanwhile, the symbolic withdrawal of French military assets from Chad underscores a broader regional pivot away from Western alliances toward Russia and other emerging partners. Rising human trafficking across sub-Saharan Africa, driven by climate-induced displacement and conflicts, emphasizes the urgent need for coordinated international responses.

The Americas grapple with escalating political violence and economic uncertainty. Mexico's assassination of Congressman Benito Aguas highlights the dangers faced by officials amidst cartel-related violence. In Brazil, President Lula's recovery from surgery casts uncertainty on fiscal reforms critical for economic stabilization. Canada's impending policy rate cut reflects ongoing stagnation, while Argentina's slight inflation resurgence tests austerity measures under President Milei's administration.

Europe faces overlapping crises. Germany's political instability deepens as snap elections loom following Chancellor Scholz's request for a confidence vote. Worker strikes and economic stagnation further pressure Germany's position as Europe's economic engine. France's energy disruptions and stalled reforms compound its political gridlock, while Georgia's anti-EU accession protests highlight a drift toward authoritarianism in the South Caucasus.

The Middle East remains volatile as Syria's transitional government under Mohamed al-Bashir struggles to consolidate power. Governance challenges, coupled with international skepticism due to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's involvement, complicate Syria's post-Assad trajectory. Gaza's humanitarian crisis continues unabated, while Iran recalibrates its regional ambitions amidst setbacks in its Axis of Resistance strategy.

Asia-Pacific faces heightened security and economic pressures. China's intensifying military operations around Taiwan and rising South China Sea tensions signal aggressive regional assertions. South Korea's political crisis, with calls for President Yoon's resignation, exacerbates instability, while Japan's energy decisions amid expiring LNG contracts with Russia reflect broader geopolitical energy realignments.

Financial markets are responding to these dynamics. Oil prices rose slightly on expectations of increased Chinese demand but remain volatile due to OPEC policies and geopolitical risks. The U.S. dollar gained strength ahead of critical inflation data, while European equities remained subdued amidst political and economic uncertainties.

The interconnected nature of today's geopolitical and economic risks demands proactive engagement and strategic resilience to address cascading challenges and foster stability.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Global Markets
(11-12-2024)

Geopolitical tensions are intensifying, with significant challenges in Africa, Europe, and the Middle East exacerbated by governance crises and evolving power dynamics in Asia-Pacific. These dynamics, paired with persistent trade and economic uncertainties, underscore heightened risks to global stability.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Global Markets (See All Global)

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