Global Risk Indexes (22-02-2025)

Global 99 (0 —)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 ( —)
Europe 99 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 99 ( —)
Graham Westcott, Global Markets region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Graham Westcott

Navigating Global Intersections: Where Trade, Finance, Energy and Geopolitics Converge

Economic Fragmentation Intensifies: Trade Wars, Energy Disruptions, and Financial Market Instability Accelerate Global Decoupling

Global markets are facing their most significant restructuring in decades as economic fragmentation, resource competition, and financial instability reshape the world order. The aggressive expansion of trade protectionism by the U.S. and China is leading to widespread supply chain disruptions, energy market volatility, and growing uncertainty in financial markets. Meanwhile, Africa is emerging as the next battleground in the global competition for critical minerals, further complicating global economic realignments.

China Expands Influence Over Africa’s Critical Minerals

China has taken further steps to secure control over Africa’s mineral wealth, deepening its strategic partnerships with key resource-producing nations. The recent announcement of state-backed Chinese investment into Congolese lithium, cobalt, and rare earth mines is a direct challenge to Western efforts to diversify supply chains away from Chinese dominance. With the U.S. and EU increasingly prioritizing domestic supply chains for electric vehicles and defense technologies, this move places further pressure on Western firms to find alternative sources of critical minerals.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is now a flashpoint in the broader geopolitical struggle over resources. The ongoing conflict in eastern Congo is escalating as regional players become further entangled in the fight for mineral-rich territories. With Rwanda-backed M23 rebels consolidating their control over key mining regions, the risk of a broader regional war is rising, threatening global supply chains for essential commodities.

U.S.-China Trade War Expands: The Battle Over Industrial Policy

The U.S. and China are now locked in an aggressive economic battle that is fundamentally reshaping global industrial supply chains. Trump’s latest announcement of higher tariffs on Chinese-produced semiconductors, electric vehicles, and solar panels is forcing Western firms to accelerate supply chain diversification efforts. In retaliation, China has imposed new export controls on rare earth minerals and lithium processing technologies, which could disrupt global industries reliant on Chinese refining capacity.

The EU is now caught in the middle of this escalating conflict. European leaders are struggling to navigate between U.S. pressure to align with Washington’s trade policies and the economic consequences of further trade restrictions with China. The German automotive sector, which is heavily reliant on Chinese EV battery components, faces significant production challenges in the coming months.

Energy Markets in Turmoil: Disruptions from Africa to Central Asia

Global energy markets are once again experiencing heightened volatility as geopolitical tensions in multiple regions disrupt supply chains. Kazakhstan’s oil exports remain significantly reduced following pipeline strikes linked to the Ukraine conflict, forcing Europe to seek alternative crude sources from North Africa and the Middle East.

Meanwhile, Libya’s energy sector is experiencing further fragmentation, with rival factions increasing independent oil sales outside government oversight. The ongoing struggle for control over Libya’s production facilities is raising concerns about the reliability of North African energy exports, a key component of Europe’s diversification strategy away from Russian crude.

China is responding to these disruptions by intensifying its efforts to secure long-term energy supplies. Beijing has accelerated energy deals with Iran and Venezuela, further deepening its strategic alignment with resource-rich nations outside the Western financial system. This move challenges U.S. sanctions policies and raises the risk of a further divide in global energy markets between Western-aligned and China-aligned supply networks.

Financial Markets React: Inflation Concerns and Currency Instability

As trade wars and energy disruptions persist, financial markets are experiencing sharp reactions. Gold has surged to a new record of $3,100 per ounce, reflecting growing concerns over global instability. Meanwhile, currency markets are in turmoil, with the Chinese yuan weakening to a five-year low against the dollar as capital outflows from China accelerate.

In Europe, economic sentiment is deteriorating. The ECB has revised its growth projections downward, warning that persistent inflation and trade disruptions could push the EU into a period of prolonged stagnation. The euro remains under pressure as investor confidence weakens, with capital shifting toward the U.S. dollar and commodity-backed currencies.

Looking Ahead: The Future of Economic Realignment

The global economic system is entering a prolonged period of restructuring. Trade protectionism, resource nationalism, and geopolitical instability are replacing the era of seamless globalization. The U.S.-China decoupling is accelerating, with major supply chains now being forced to realign toward regional trade blocs. Energy markets will remain volatile as geopolitical risks increase in key production zones, while financial markets must navigate rising inflation and currency instability.

For businesses, investors, and policymakers, the ability to adapt to shifting trade routes, supply chain disruptions, and financial instability will determine economic resilience in the coming years. The world is moving toward a fragmented economic order, where geopolitics will be the dominant force shaping financial and trade decisions.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Global Markets
(22-02-2025)

The global economy is undergoing a fundamental shift as protectionist policies, resource-driven geopolitical rivalries, and financial market instability redefine global trade and investment flows. The expansion of U.S. and Chinese economic nationalism is accelerating supply chain realignments, while energy market disruptions in Africa, Central Asia, and the Middle East are amplifying price volatility. The financial sector is grappling with diverging central bank policies, currency instability, and slowing growth in key markets, particularly in Europe and emerging economies. With China intensifying its control over critical minerals in Africa and Western economies reassessing their industrial policies, the future global economic landscape is becoming increasingly fragmented and defined by regional economic blocs rather than a unified global system.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Global Markets (See All Global)

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