Global Risk Indexes (15-02-2025)

Global 98 (+1 ▲)
MENA 98 ( —)
APAC 97 (+1 ▲)
Europe 98 (+1 ▲)
Africa 98 (+1 ▲)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 97 (+1 ▲)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

Iran-Israel Tensions Escalate, Erdogan Condemns Trump's Gaza Policy, and U.N. Warns of Impending Crisis in the Region

The Middle East is experiencing an alarming convergence of crises, with escalating tensions between Iran, Israel, and Lebanon, deepening rifts between Washington and its Arab allies, and worsening humanitarian conditions in Gaza. U.S. President Donald Trump has once again insisted that Jordan and Egypt must accept displaced Palestinians, despite their categorical refusals. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has intensified his opposition, calling Trump's Gaza policy a 'strategic miscalculation' and accusing Washington of 'blindly following Zionist lies.' Meanwhile, the conflict between Iran and Israel has intensified as Israeli intelligence accuses Tehran of using civilian flights to Beirut to smuggle funds to Hezbollah. Lebanon's government has attempted to de-escalate tensions, but Hezbollah supporters have blocked roads near Beirut's airport, and an attack on UNIFIL personnel has further destabilized the situation. The U.N. nuclear watchdog has warned that Iran's uranium enrichment is approaching weapons-grade levels, heightening fears of a nuclear standoff. In Syria, Turkey is preparing for military action against Kurdish factions, even as Damascus signals a willingness to coordinate with Ankara. Trump's cuts to foreign aid in Syria have raised alarms over potential riots and ISIS resurgence in refugee camps. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is pushing for an alternative Gaza plan, directly challenging Trump's forced displacement strategy, and welcoming the possibility of a Trump-Putin summit in Riyadh, reinforcing its growing role in global diplomacy. As Gaza's water shortages reach catastrophic levels, the risk of mass displacement and further unrest is increasing. These developments indicate that the region is heading toward a new phase of instability, with diplomacy struggling to contain the rising tensions.

Trump's Gaza Displacement Plan: Growing Global Resistance

Trump's insistence on Palestinian displacement is facing an increasing global backlash. Jordan and Egypt remain firm in their refusal to accept any refugees, while Erdogan's strong condemnation marks a significant moment in Turkey's regional positioning. The Vatican's criticism further isolates Trump's stance, indicating that opposition to the policy is expanding beyond the Arab world. Saudi Arabia's efforts to craft an alternative post-war solution for Gaza also signal that Trump's plan is unlikely to gain traction within the region. If Washington continues down this path, it risks further damaging its relationships with Arab allies and strengthening Iran's influence as the self-proclaimed champion of Palestinian rights.

Iran-Lebanon-Israel Standoff: The Risk of a Broader Conflict

The growing dispute over alleged Iranian financial support to Hezbollah through Beirut's airport has triggered a dangerous escalation in Lebanon. Israel's accusations have sparked violent protests in Beirut, with Hezbollah supporters blocking roads and targeting UNIFIL personnel. The injury of UNIFIL's deputy commander signals that foreign missions in Lebanon are becoming increasingly vulnerable. If this crisis worsens, Israel may escalate airstrikes on Lebanese territory, drawing Hezbollah further into conflict and increasing the risk of an all-out confrontation.

Iran's Nuclear Program: Approaching a Critical Threshold

The U.N. nuclear watchdog's latest warning confirms that Iran's uranium enrichment is now dangerously close to weapons-grade levels. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has responded defiantly, stating that an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear sites would result in Tehran constructing '1,000 new facilities.' This rhetoric underscores Iran's strategic posture of deterrence, but it also raises the likelihood of a preemptive Israeli strike, which could ignite a full-scale regional war.

Strategic Outlook

The MENA region is moving toward an extremely volatile period, with major flashpoints developing simultaneously. Trump's Gaza policy is facing widespread resistance from Arab and global actors, increasing Washington's diplomatic isolation. The Iran-Lebanon-Israel standoff is escalating, with Hezbollah's growing involvement threatening to push Lebanon into deeper instability. Iran's nuclear program is reaching a dangerous stage, making an Israeli preemptive strike increasingly probable. Meanwhile, Turkey's positioning in Syria and its defiance of Washington on Gaza signal a realignment of regional power dynamics. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is worsening, fueling tensions that could lead to mass displacement and further unrest. The next few weeks will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can de-escalate these tensions or if the region is heading toward broader conflicts.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(15-02-2025)

The MENA region is experiencing heightened instability as diplomatic crises, military escalations, and economic realignments converge. Trump's ongoing pressure campaign against Jordan and Egypt to accept displaced Palestinians has further strained U.S.-Arab relations, with Erdogan now openly condemning Trump's approach as a 'threat to regional stability.' Meanwhile, tensions between Iran, Lebanon, and Israel are escalating, with accusations that Iran is using Beirut's airport to fund Hezbollah, leading to protests and violence in Lebanon. UNIFIL's deputy commander has been injured in an attack, signaling growing risks to foreign personnel in Lebanon. At the same time, the U.N. nuclear watchdog has issued a dire warning about Iran's accelerating uranium enrichment, confirming that Tehran is closer than ever to weapons-grade capability. In Syria, Turkey has threatened military action against 'terrorist groups' while the new Syrian government signals an interest in coordination with Ankara. Trump's cuts to foreign aid have also triggered concerns about instability in Syria's Al-Hol and Roj camps, as ISIS-affiliated groups threaten riots and mass escape attempts. On the diplomatic front, Saudi Arabia is working with Arab nations to create an alternative post-war plan for Gaza, directly challenging Trump's forced displacement strategy. Meanwhile, Riyadh has also welcomed the possibility of a Trump-Putin summit, further positioning itself as a key global diplomatic actor. The Vatican's sharp criticism of Trump's Gaza plan adds to the growing international backlash. With Gaza's humanitarian crisis worsening due to Israeli restrictions, water shortages have reached catastrophic levels, increasing the risk of mass displacement and regional unrest. The region stands at the brink of multiple escalations, with critical diplomatic and military decisions looming.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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