Global Risk Indexes (16-02-2025)

Global 98 (0 —)
MENA 99 (+1 ▲)
APAC 97 ( —)
Europe 98 ( —)
Africa 98 ( —)
AMERs 98 ( —)
Markets 97 ( —)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

MENA at a Breaking Point: Trump's Gaza Crisis Worsens, Israel Prepares for War, and Iran's Nuclear Ambitions Intensify

The Middle East is now facing its most precarious moment in recent years, as diplomatic, military, and economic crises escalate simultaneously. U.S. President Donald Trump's Gaza displacement plan has become a flashpoint for regional tensions, with Jordan, Egypt, and Turkey leading a coordinated rejection of the policy. Erdogan has positioned Turkey as a direct opponent of U.S. regional policy, condemning Trump's actions as a 'threat to world peace.' Meanwhile, Israel has mobilized forces for a potential full-scale offensive in Gaza, with ceasefire negotiations in Qatar at a standstill and Hamas signaling a hardened stance. In parallel, U.S. intelligence reports suggest that Israel is actively preparing for a preemptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities by mid-2025, escalating the risk of a regional war. Iran has responded defiantly, accelerating its uranium enrichment and warning that it will build '1,000 new nuclear sites' if attacked.

Trump's Gaza Crisis: A Diplomatic and Regional Flashpoint

Trump's insistence on Palestinian displacement has backfired, triggering a significant diplomatic crisis. Jordan and Egypt have outright rejected the plan, warning that it threatens regional stability. Saudi Arabia, leading an alternative Arab-backed post-war strategy for Gaza, has deepened the divide between Washington and its historical allies. The Vatican's vocal opposition has further internationalized resistance to Trump's policy. Erdogan's condemnation of the plan reflects Turkey's strategic shift, as Ankara positions itself as a leading force in opposing U.S. dominance in MENA. If Trump continues pushing for this policy, it could permanently damage U.S.-Arab relations while empowering Iran and Turkey as defenders of Palestinian rights.

Israel's Gaza Offensive: Countdown to Renewed War

Israel has mobilized reservists and positioned forces for a major offensive in Gaza, as Netanyahu's government grows increasingly frustrated with the stalled hostage negotiations. Hamas has hardened its position, accusing Israel of ceasefire violations, making renewed conflict inevitable. A full-scale Israeli operation risks regional spillover, with Hezbollah signaling potential retaliation and the Houthis in Yemen warning of Red Sea military actions if Gaza is attacked. With diplomatic mediation failing, the region is on the brink of another devastating war.

Iran's Nuclear Acceleration and the Growing Risk of War

The U.N. nuclear watchdog has issued its most urgent warning yet, confirming that Iran's uranium enrichment is nearing weapons-grade levels. U.S. and Israeli intelligence reports indicate that Israel is preparing a preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear sites by mid-2025. Tehran has responded defiantly, with President Pezeshkian warning that an attack would lead to Iran expanding its nuclear program at an accelerated rate. This standoff is one of the most dangerous in recent history, with any miscalculation likely triggering a full-scale regional war.

Strategic Energy Shifts: Saudi Oil Cuts and Turkey's Gas Expansion

Saudi Arabia has reduced oil shipments to China for the third consecutive month, signaling a possible shift in Riyadh's long-term energy strategy. This could be aimed at adjusting market leverage, aligning closer to Western interests, or diversifying away from reliance on Beijing. Meanwhile, Turkey has secured a critical natural gas deal with Turkmenistan, reinforcing its ambition to become a key energy hub connecting Europe and Asia.

Strategic Outlook

The MENA region is at a decisive moment, with multiple crises escalating simultaneously. Trump's Gaza displacement policy is causing serious rifts between Washington and its regional allies, Israel is on the verge of launching a new Gaza offensive, and Iran is nearing nuclear weapons capability. The risk of an Israeli-Iranian war is at its highest in years, while Hezbollah's confrontation with Israel over Beirut's airport funding dispute could lead to wider regional instability. At the same time, economic shifts'such as Saudi Arabia's changing oil strategy and Turkey's energy expansion'are redefining regional power dynamics. The coming weeks will determine whether diplomacy can defuse these tensions or if the Middle East is heading into a new era of conflict and realignment.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(16-02-2025)

The MENA region has entered an extremely volatile period, with multiple crises converging. Trump's insistence on the forced displacement of Palestinians has triggered a severe diplomatic crisis with Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, and the broader Arab world, further weakening U.S. regional alliances. Meanwhile, Israel is mobilizing for an imminent Gaza offensive, with Hamas hardening its position and ceasefire negotiations in Qatar stalled. Iran is accelerating uranium enrichment to near weapons-grade levels, prompting urgent warnings from the U.N. nuclear watchdog, while the risk of an Israeli preemptive strike on Iranian facilities is rising. Hezbollah's tensions with Israel are also escalating, particularly with accusations that Iran is using Beirut's airport to fund the group, increasing the likelihood of cross-border confrontations. Economic shifts are also reshaping regional power balances'Saudi Arabia has cut oil shipments to China for the third consecutive month, signaling a strategic realignment in Riyadh's global energy partnerships. Turkey is strengthening its influence through a major gas deal with Turkmenistan while escalating military operations in northern Syria. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza is reaching catastrophic levels, with severe water shortages and no reconstruction permitted, further destabilizing the region. With these simultaneous conflicts, economic power shifts, and diplomatic realignments, the risk of widespread escalation is now at its highest level in recent years.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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