Europe Confronts Hybrid Warfare, U.S. Trade Conflicts, and Political Upheaval Amid Global Power Struggles
The European security landscape is shifting dangerously, as Russia escalates its hybrid warfare efforts and strengthens its military ties with North Korea. Recent reports indicate that North Korean ballistic missiles used by Russian forces in Ukraine have significantly improved in accuracy, posing a direct threat to Kyiv's defensive capabilities. This suggests that Pyongyang is using the battlefield as a testing ground for advanced weapons, with potential consequences for global security. If North Korea refines its missile technology further, it could threaten NATO states, increase tensions in East Asia, and boost arms proliferation among hostile regimes. Europe must urgently assess the implications of this development, strengthen Ukraine's missile defenses, and coordinate a unified NATO response.
Russia's influence operations are intensifying, with Moscow expelling a Le Monde correspondent in retaliation for France denying visas to Russian journalists suspected of intelligence work. This highlights the growing information war between Russia and Europe, in which both sides are tightening media controls and diplomatic channels. As independent journalism becomes increasingly restricted within Russia, Europe faces an uphill battle in countering disinformation and maintaining credible reporting on the ground.
The U.S.-EU trade relationship is deteriorating, with President Donald Trump's tariff threats casting a shadow over European markets. The European Central Bank has acknowledged that an all-out U.S.-China trade war could severely impact the Eurozone, as China may dump discounted products on European markets to offset losses in the U.S. This could trigger economic stagnation, increased protectionism, and internal EU tensions over trade policy. European leaders must prepare for aggressive economic measures by both Washington and Beijing, while securing alternative trade alliances to shield key industries.
France and Germany face mounting political instability, with French Prime Minister Fran'ois Bayrou narrowly surviving no-confidence votes and the German government struggling with internal divisions over migration policy. The rise of the far right, particularly in Germany, is reshaping the political landscape, as mainstream parties attempt to co-opt anti-immigration rhetoric to counter the Alternative for Germany (AfD). This polarization could hinder EU policy coordination, particularly on issues like security, climate change, and economic reform.
The Arctic is emerging as a new geopolitical flashpoint, with U.S. pressure on Greenland raising tensions between Washington and European states. Trump's renewed interest in acquiring Greenland'despite Danish opposition'signals a broader strategic push by the U.S. to expand its Arctic presence. Meanwhile, Russia is conducting military maneuvers with nuclear-capable Yars missiles, reinforcing its dominance in the region. Europe must urgently develop a coherent Arctic security strategy to prevent being sidelined in this high-stakes contest.
The European energy sector remains vulnerable, with Ukraine exploring LNG storage partnerships with the U.S. as it faces post-war transit challenges. With Russia no longer using Ukrainian pipelines for gas exports, Kyiv is repositioning itself as a strategic energy hub for Europe. This shift underscores the need for long-term European energy diversification, particularly through LNG infrastructure, nuclear energy expansion, and renewable investments.
Hungary's economic troubles are intensifying, as Prime Minister Viktor Orb'n faces mounting fiscal pressures ahead of the 2026 elections. With inflation concerns rising and his party trailing in the polls, Orb'n is deploying populist economic measures, such as home renovation grants for pensioners. However, these short-term giveaways could undermine Hungary's fiscal stability, potentially triggering EU intervention.
Europe is approaching a critical inflection point. The convergence of hybrid threats, economic pressures, political fragmentation, and Arctic competition demands decisive action. If the EU fails to act cohesively, it risks losing geopolitical influence and economic resilience in an increasingly multipolar world.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Europe
(06-02-2025)
Europe remains in a precarious geopolitical position, facing a complex mix of external and internal challenges. The ongoing war in Ukraine is evolving with new hybrid warfare tactics from Russia and North Korea, the U.S.-EU trade relationship is on the brink of severe disruption, and political instability continues to mount across key EU states. The continent must navigate these crises carefully to maintain its strategic stability and avoid economic downturns and security vulnerabilities.
Geopolitical Risk Index
Developments to Follow for the Europe (See All Global)
Previous Briefings
- Europe Confronts Hybrid Warfare, U.S. Trade Conflicts, and Political Upheaval Amid Global Power Struggles - (06-02-2025)
- Europe at a Breaking Point: Russia's Hybrid Warfare, U.S. Trade War, and Political Polarization Threaten Continental Stability - (05-02-2025)
- Europe's Strategic Crossroads: Russia's Hybrid War, U.S. Trade Tariffs, and Internal Political Fractures Raise Existential Questions - (04-02-2025)
- Europe Under Siege: Russian Advances, Hybrid Threats, and Economic Struggles Push EU Toward a Critical Inflection Point - (03-02-2025)
- Europe at a Crossroads: Ukraine War Intensifies, Hybrid Warfare Expands, and Economic Instability Deepens - (02-02-2025)
- Europe Faces Military Escalation, Economic Disruptions, and Hybrid Threats Amid Intensifying Global Power Struggles - (01-02-2025)
- Europe Faces Existential Geopolitical Test Amid Russian Military Gains, Economic Stagnation, and Political Polarization - (31-01-2025)
- Europe Grapples with Russian Gains, Arctic Rivalries, and Political Polarization Amid Heightened Security Risks - (30-01-2025)
