Global Risk Indexes (12-01-2025)

Global 96 (+1 ▲)
MENA 99 ( —)
APAC 98 (+1 ▲)
Europe 98 (+1 ▲)
Africa 88 (+2 ▲)
AMERs 96 (-2 ▼)
Markets 96 (+2 ▲)
Farid al-Khaleqi, Middle East region analyst at Worldwise Analytica

Farid al-Khaleqi

Navigating the Sands of Time, Illuminating the Geopolitical Horizon

MENA in Turmoil: Gaza's Catastrophe, Lebanon's Transition, and Strategic Rebalancing

The Middle East continues to face profound challenges, with the week's developments underscoring the interconnected nature of regional crises. Escalating violence, fragile political transitions, and economic vulnerabilities are reshaping the geopolitical landscape, with global implications.

The Gaza conflict has reached unprecedented levels of devastation, with over 46,000 fatalities and widespread infrastructure destruction. Israeli airstrikes persist, while Hamas remains defiant in ceasefire talks mediated in Doha. Israel's insistence on buffer zones and Hamas' demands for full withdrawal highlight entrenched positions that impede progress. Winter conditions have compounded Gaza's humanitarian crisis, while the looming closure of UNRWA threatens to exacerbate displacement and aid shortages. The impending transition to the Trump administration adds uncertainty, as a more aggressive U.S. stance could complicate existing mediation efforts. The conflict's protracted nature risks inflaming regional tensions, particularly as accountability pressures mount with ICC investigations into potential war crimes.

Lebanon's political pivot with Joseph Aoun's election marks a significant moment, offering both hope and challenges. Backed by U.S. and Gulf powers, Aoun seeks to restore state institutions and diminish Hezbollah's influence. However, the monumental task of rebuilding post-war Lebanon, including addressing $8.5 billion in damages, underscores the necessity of international aid. Aoun's balancing act between enforcing U.N. Resolution 1701 and managing sectarian divides will determine Lebanon's trajectory. Ties with Syria, reflected in caretaker PM Najib Mikati's visit to Damascus, further complicate Lebanon's role in a post-Assad regional order.

Syria's transitional government under HTS faces mounting legitimacy challenges. The EU's internal divisions over sanctions and the U.S. waiver for energy and humanitarian aid reflect cautious engagement. However, HTS's reliance on controversial figures and illicit revenues such as captagon production undermines efforts to stabilize the nation. Israeli airstrikes on Aleppo and Damascus further destabilize Syria, complicating its recovery trajectory. Regional actors like Qatar and the UAE are stepping up aid, but the lack of comprehensive governance reforms risks long-term instability.

Yemen's escalating conflict highlights the region's proxy dynamics, with Israeli retaliatory strikes on Houthi-controlled areas following attacks on Tel Aviv and U.S. naval assets. The use of advanced drones underscores Iran's deepening role in Yemen through its Houthi allies, signaling a broader contest for influence in the region. The humanitarian crisis continues to worsen, as international mediation struggles to gain traction amid escalating violence.

Turkey's strategic recalibrations in Syria and its Kurdish policies reflect its ambition to shape the region's power dynamics. Ankara's outreach to Abdullah Ocalan and pro-Kurdish political parties marks a tactical shift, but ongoing military operations against the YPG in northern Syria indicate Erdogan's commitment to a hardline stance. These policies risk straining Turkey's relations with Western allies and complicating U.S. strategies in the region.

The Gulf's economic resilience amidst global uncertainties demonstrates adaptability, with investments in high-tech industries signaling a shift toward diversification. The UAE's $20 billion data center investment in the U.S. underscores its strategic alignment with Washington while balancing regional geopolitical pressures. However, Gulf states' reliance on oil revenues remains a vulnerability, particularly as global energy transitions accelerate and OPEC production cuts heighten fiscal pressures.

Strategic Implications: The region's overlapping crises demand a nuanced, multi-dimensional approach to stabilization. Gaza's ongoing devastation risks deepening regional polarization and humanitarian suffering. Lebanon's political transition presents an opportunity for renewal but hinges on sustained international engagement. Syria's fragile governance and Turkey's assertive policies highlight the need for coordinated diplomacy to prevent further destabilization. Without comprehensive efforts addressing governance, economic resilience, and conflict resolution, the MENA region faces prolonged instability with global ramifications for security and economic systems.

Geopolitical Risk Assessment for the Middle East
(12-01-2025)

The MENA region remains a volatile theater of intersecting conflicts, political transitions, and economic recalibrations. Escalating violence in Gaza, Lebanon's political pivot, and strategic maneuvers in Syria and Yemen reflect the region's fragility, necessitating a coordinated and inclusive international response to mitigate long-term risks.

Geopolitical Risk Index

Developments to Follow for the Middle East (See All Global)

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